Joint Agriculture/Eskom Task Team Meets

The task team consisting of representatives from Agriculture and ESKOM had its first meeting this morning in order to address the effect of load shedding on Agriculture and to determine the way forward in finding an amicable solution with the emphasis on the wine and deciduous fruit industries as well as for the broader agricultural sector in the Western Cape.

It is evident from a macro economic analysis that a 1% decrease in productivity could lead to:

• 3% loss in GDP
• 129 100 jobs lost
• 0,54% increase in food prices
• Rolling blackouts are probably the worst approach - we should look at assured electricity supply, but then at a lower level (say 90% of historical levels).

Some points that were raised by the industries were that:

• At the present moment the value of the wine industry is R15 billion and the export earnings is about R3, 5 billion
• The cooling of the wine industry is crucial for the quality of the wine
• The industry will shed energy, but asked ESCOM to accommodate them in terms of scheduled times
• The industry appealed that ESCOM should look at the program that was followed during 2006 when load shedding occurred

The Deciduous fruit industry indicated that they had the same concerns as the wine industry but:

• Fruit must enter the cold chain within 1 hour
• Cold chain must maintain its integrity therefore making the time of the shedding very crucial
• In their presentation Eskom made the following remarks
• The reasons for the current crisis include the late start of the new building programme, and the increase in demand between 1994 and 2005 of more than 50%
• The current reserve margin is between 8-10% while the international recommendation is 15%

   

• The demand and supply situation will become closer together in 2010
• It seems that, in 2008, we were requested to shed about 10% of the maximum demand
• It seems as if we will have to go to stage 2 shedding (twice a day) from 3 March.

The reasons for this include:
- More demand
- Coal situation

However, this excludes any saving measures. It seems as if the situation will only improve in the second semester, and specifically by December this year. They plan to save 412 mw in the Western Region by demand side measures (this is equal to the load that needs to be shedded).

These include:
- Efficient lighting (CFL lighting)
- Building retrofitting
- Customer self-generation
- Geyser control etc

Eskom is looking at solar water heating - currently they are talking between R8 000 and R30 000 and they are talking about a potential subsidy of 10% to 30%.

• Koeberg Unit 2 is currently out for refuelling, and will be back by 29 April 2008
• Construction for new power stations will start in 2010 and be on-line by 2016. Two of the proposed 5 sites are in the Western Cape
• 100 mw of wind farms will be working by 2009 in Lutzville. (1 turbine is 2 mw)
• Solar power will be generated in Upington
• Major lines are being built from the rest of the country, but the new generation capacity will make supply much more reliable

I am glad to announce that it was decided that the load shedding schedules will be prepared to assist agriculture as far as possible based on a schedule that Agri Western Cape will finalise in consultation with its members.