Western Cape Government Outlines Preparedness for Risks Related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Upcoming Summer Season

“The Western Cape has learned difficult lessons over the past several months and years; we must all always be prepared for the pressures of climate change and associated risks.”

This was the call made by Premier Alan Winde, who hosted a digicon today, where he and Western Cape Minister of of Local Government, Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, Anton Bredell, along with other officials, outlined the provincial government’s preparedness for the impact of the climate phenomenon El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the province.

Understanding ENSO and its risks

ENSO is a global climate cycle driven by changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Even though it starts thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific, it acts like a giant atmospheric “see-saw” that alters weather patterns across the globe.

ENSO is currently in an El Niño state and is expected to continue strengthening over the next several months. ​

Although ENSO’s most direct and severe effects in South Africa are experienced in summer-rainfall regions, it also presents risks to the Western Cape.

The province’s residents should still be prepared for weather-related impacts, such as:

• An increase in air temperatures which could potentially lead to extreme heat.
• An increase in fire risks, which has been compounded by a drier winter so far.
• An increased strain on water resources

Premier Winde noted, “Over the past several months, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned us of lower-than-average rainfall for the Western Cape. While our province was hit hard by severe flooding events in May 2026, which included heavy rains, this does not necessarily mean the region received enough rain to adequately bolster and secure our water resources through summer. We must all be aware of our water usage.”

Modelling the Western Cape’s future climate change patterns

The provincial government has done detailed modelling work with the University of Cape Town to better understand the impact of climate change.

“We are seeing significant increases in temperatures and some acceleration of temperature changes. Although these are not new to our climate, what we see is that they are different to historical events because we have this extra accelerator that human induced climate change is bringing,” said Chief Director: Environmental Sustainability at the Western Cape Government, Karen Shippey.

This includes:

• Increasingly frequent and intense droughts
• More hot days and fewer cold days
• Reductions in rainfall in autumn (March-May) across most sub-regions
• Wind variability and strength shifts – 2025 for example had winds 5 times the average wind speed)

Bolstering water security

Currently, Western Cape dam levels are 5% lower than this time last year.

The Western Cape and its residents have experienced the consequences of drought before, and water security cannot depend only on rainfall and existing surface water infrastructure:

• For the 2026/27 financial year, the provincial Department of Local Government has allocated R40.5 million to municipalities through the Water Resilience Grant. This funding is directed towards strengthening municipal capacity and infrastructure so that communities are better prepared for periods of water stress and potential supply disruptions.
• Additionally, R25.2 million has been allocated through the Groundwater and Response Programme for projects during the 2026/27 financial year.
• Together, this represents more than R65 million in targeted investment in water resilience initiatives.

These investments are important because water security requires a diversified approach. Municipalities need to improve their ability to monitor and manage water resources, reduce losses, strengthen infrastructure, and develop alternative sources of supply.

The Premier added that the province is proactively investing resources in anticipation of future natural disasters. 

“We must be more proactive and predictive in our planning. We must ensure we are prepared for any eventuality. But this responsibility does not only fall on us as a provincial government; all of us play a role.”

Anton Bredell, Western Cape Minister of Local Government, Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, stated, “Preparedness cannot begin when the first major wildfire breaks out, or when water systems come under pressure, or when a prolonged heatwave starts affecting vulnerable communities. By then, we are already responding to a crisis. The real work of disaster preparedness takes place before the emergency. It requires planning, coordination and, importantly, investment.”

Graham Paulse, Head of Department: Local Government stressed the importance of partnerships, “From municipalities to our disaster management network and stakeholders and residents, we all must work closer together to mitigate the increasing risks of fires.”

Head of the Provincial Disaster Management Centre, Dr Colin Deiner, said, “Our planning does not start now; it starts at the end of every summer. And we need the help of every single resident of our province.”

“Where you live matters and if you know that there is a fire risk in your area, now is the time to prepare,” concluded Premier Winde.

To watch a recording of the briefing, use the link below:

https://www.youtube.com/live/5XgxFsLD8t8?si=sn7v8wLlWmW0ufaf